Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.346012 14.115859 16.036073 18.272432 20.803701 23.578158 26.848003
2024-10-13 10.098031 12.546845 15.415662 19.017523 23.411714 28.590925 35.151269
2024-10-20 8.547961 11.206570 14.478714 18.789141 24.304219 31.109518 40.128770
2024-10-27 7.050522 9.698950 13.105512 17.789010 24.039535 32.070436 43.145671
2024-11-03 6.421586 9.201636 12.913387 18.203696 25.518448 35.239676 49.097530
2024-11-10 5.905078 8.781511 12.754183 18.604020 26.954702 38.394735 55.194028
2024-11-17 5.293650 8.151369 12.225340 18.409803 27.504352 40.319384 59.661855
2024-11-24 4.729563 7.526225 11.634005 18.050699 27.752910 41.788501 63.522170
2024-12-01 4.343494 7.126697 11.329703 18.071461 28.530573 44.032274 68.607452
2024-12-08 4.073069 6.877500 11.223920 18.370322 29.725665 46.938706 74.828203
2024-12-15 3.796109 6.589400 11.027921 18.500968 30.650289 49.466710 80.593707
2024-12-22 3.489222 6.222260 10.671913 18.338544 31.082445 51.234290 85.245781
2024-12-29 3.266073 5.982814 10.514108 18.502089 32.075097 53.982970 91.696262
2025-01-05 3.137151 5.895205 10.602100 19.081388 33.791419 57.998353 100.451753
2025-01-12 2.893198 5.579045 10.270146 18.907667 34.208466 59.881459 105.753349
2025-01-19 2.540705 5.032325 9.489823 17.884593 33.078978 59.087895 106.458217
2025-01-26 2.438072 4.943038 9.518858 18.306964 34.512629 62.735778 114.995099
2025-02-02 2.339881 4.852973 9.537678 18.707620 35.925566 66.416497 123.782554
2025-02-09 2.171085 4.609330 9.250143 18.512956 36.229584 68.143069 129.169832
2025-02-16 1.996804 4.339046 8.890326 18.151752 36.192653 69.242294 133.463726
2025-02-23 1.882168 4.180702 8.735001 18.172684 36.875388 71.682721 140.343081
2025-03-02 1.807023 4.098331 8.723046 18.473118 38.111049 75.207496 149.426124
2025-03-09 1.719109 3.980946 8.631141 18.604466 39.018716 78.155948 157.563257